Karachi: December 2024 mein Consumer Price Index (CPI) ke sharp decline ki tawaqo hai, jo April 2018 ke baad se sab se kam 4% par aa sakti hai. Yeh decline high base effect ke sabab hai, aur MoM (Month-on-Month) basis par inflation flattish rehne ka imkaan hai. 1HFY25 (July-Dec) ki average inflation 7.3% rehne ki umeed hai, jo pichle saal ke 1HFY24 ke 28.8% se kaafi kam hai.
Food Inflation:
Pichle saal ka food inflation jo 27% se zyada tha, December 2024 mein sirf +0.03% YoY barhne ki tawaqo hai, jabke MoM basis par -23bp girawat ka imkaan hai.
Core Inflation:
Core inflation December 2024 mein 10.8% rehne ki umeed hai, jisme MoM 80bp ka izafa ho sakta hai.
Tawaqoat for FY25:
According to estimation FY25 mein average CPI 6.5% reh sakta hai. Agar gas ke prices nahi barhaye gaye aur doodh ke prices mein sirf normal izafa hua, toh CPI average 6.3% tak gir sakta hai. Fuel prices ke hawale se, PDL (Petroleum Development Levy) barhne ke imkaanaat kam hain, lekin agar izafa hua toh fuel prices zyada ho sakti hain.
Monetary Policy Committee:
Expert opinion ke mutabiq inflation ki lagataar girawat Monetary Policy Committee ke liye easing cycle jaari rakhne ka case mazboot banati hai. Lekin agle meeting mein ab ek chhoti reduction ke imkaanaat zyada hain.
