Global Tariff War: Pakistan Nazar Andaaz Nahi Kar Sakta

Donald Trump ka propose kiya gaya 10% universal tariff aur 60% duty Chinese goods par sirf ek U.S./China ka masla nahi hai. Pakistan ko yeh points consider karne chahiye:

PKR Dabao Mein Aayega: Yeh Sirf China Tak Mehdood Nahi

1. Mazboot Dollar, Kamzor PKR – Agar U.S. tariffs inflation ko barhata hai, toh Federal Reserve interest rates zyada dair tak high rakh sakta hai. Iska natija mazid strong dollar aur emerging markets par squeeze hoga, jisme Pakistan bhi shamil hai. 
2. China ka Jawaab – Agar China apni currency yuan (CNY) ko devalue karta hai taake apni exports competitive banaye, toh PKR aur Bangladeshi taka (BDT) dono par pressure padega, jiski wajah se debt repayments aur mehngi ho jayengi. 
3. Pakistan ka Ghair Seedha Nuqsan – China Pakistani exports ko apni global supply chains ke liye kharidta hai. Wahan slowdown ka seedha asar yahaan demand par aayega, jo industrial growth ko nuksan pohchayega. (Yaad rahe, China Pakistan ka sabse bara trading partner hai.) 

Mehngai: Asal Wajah Kya Hai?

Fuel aur food ke ilawa, ek chhupi hui wajah rising industrial costs bhi hai:

• Smuggling crackdown ne Afghan transit trade ko roka, jiski wajah se industries ko machinery aur raw materials ab higher legal import prices par lena par raha hai. 
• State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reserves barhane ke liye local market se dollars khareed raha hai, jo liquidity ko tight kar raha hai aur imports finance karna mushkil bana raha hai. 
• Inflation January 2025 mein 2.4% tak gir gaya (December 2024 ke 4.1% se), magar asal wages uss speed se barh nahi rahi, jo gharon ke budgets ko aur pressure mein daal rahi hai. 

Army ka Barhta Economic Role: SIFC ka Asar

Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) ke zariye military ab economic policy shape kar rahi hai:

• Gulf investments fast-track ho rahi hain, khaaskar agriculture sector mein.
• China ke saath direct engagements ho rahi hain, naye MoUs sign ho chuke hain.
• Bureaucracy ko bypass karna approvals fast karta hai, magar yeh crucial oversight ko weak bhi kar sakta hai.

PKR aur Interest Rates: Kya Aage Hoga?

1. Remittances HY2025 mein $17.645 billion tak pohch gayi hain, jo exports ($16.561 billion) se bhi zyada hain, is wajah se PKR abhi tak stable hai.
2. March 2025 tak $3 billion ka debt repayment due hai, jo currency par naye pressure ka sabab ban sakta hai.
3. SBP ne interest rate 12% tak kam kar diya, jo market expectations se neeche hai. Mid-2025 tak mazeed 100-150 bps cuts ho sakte hain, magar global tariff risks ki wajah se yeh Q3 tak delay bhi ho sakta hai.

SBP ke Revised Targets – FY25 ke Liye Key Takeaways

📉 Inflation: 11.5 – 13.5% se gir kar 5.5 – 7.5% tak revise kiya gaya.
💰 Current Account: 0-1% se adjust kar ke +-0.5% kiya gaya.
📊 GDP Growth: 2.5-3.5% par barqarar rakha gaya.

Yeh developments Pakistan ke liye critical hain. Kya hukoomat aur private sector in challenges ke liye tayyar hai?

Article by Mr. Muhammad Noman, The Founder & Editor-in-Chief of Pakistan’s 1st Urdu Roman News