Islamabad: Jan-2025 mein Pakistan ka current account deficit (CAD) US$420mn record kiya gaya, jo trade deficit ke barhne ki wajah se hua, halan ke remittances ke zyada hone ka faida bhi tha. 7MFY25 ke doran CA surplus US$682mn tak pohch gaya hai. Is saal remittances kaafi madadgar sabit ho rahi hain, jo ab tak har mahine US$3bn tak pohch chuki hain, jab ke pehle yeh US$2.3bn-2.4bn per month thi. Ideal situation yeh hoti ke outflows bhi kam hote aur remittances apni jagah stable rehti.

Balance of Payments (BoP) bhi negative raha

BoP bhi is mahine negative raha, kyunki CAD aur loan repayments ne pressure create kiya. FY25TD ke doran yeh teesri dafa hai jab BoP negative aaya hai, magar 7MFY25 ka overall BoP balance abhi bhi positive hai. Dec-24 ke baad SBP ke reserves US$500mn se zyada gir chuke hain aur import cover 2.8 months se 2.3 months tak aa gaya hai, jo ek alarming situation hai.

Foreign Loan Inflows aur Financial Support

Naye data ke mutabiq, Pakistan ko 7MFY25 mein US$4.6bn foreign inflows mile hain, jo US$19.4bn ki total disbursement projection se kaafi kam hain. ADB ne sabse zyada US$2.3bn provide kiye, jab ke China se US$329mn aaye. Hukumat ne international bonds se paisa uthane ka plan drop kar diya hai aur ab commercial loans par focus kar rahi hai. Ab tak US$500mn commercial loans uthaye gaye hain aur Naya Pakistan Certificates se US$1.13bn generate kiya gaya hai. IMF ki pehli tranche mila kar total disbursement US$5.7bn tak pohch chuki hai.

Aage Ka Scenario: CAD Balance Stable Rahega?

SBP ke mutabiq FY25 ka current account ya to surplus mein rahega ya deficit 0.5% GDP tak ho sakta hai. Yeh target achieve ho sakta hai agar trade deficit control ho aur remittances Eid ke dino mein barh jayein. Magar hum samajhte hain ke import normalization (especially food aur oil imports) ki wajah se CAD phir red zone mein aa sakta hai.

Article by Mr Muhammad Noman Founder & Editor in Chief, Pakistan’s 1st Urdu Roman News