Oil prices aaj halki si neeche aa gayi hain kyunke Russia ke Novorossiysk port par loadings dobara shuru ho chuki hain. Yeh export hub do din ke liye band tha Ukrainian drone aur missile hamle ke baad, lekin ab supply concerns kuch had tak door ho gaye hain.
Brent crude 28 cents ya 0.4% gir kar $63.92 per barrel par aa gaya, jab ke WTI crude bhi 26 cents neeche aa kar $59.65 per barrel par trade kar raha hai.
Industry sources ke mutabiq Novorossiysk port ne Sunday ko loadings resume kar di, jo pehle missile aur drone attacks ki wajah se band tha. Novorossiysk aur us ke qareeb Caspian Pipeline Consortium mil kar taqreeban 2.2 million barrels per day export karte hain — yaani duniya ki total supply ka takreeban 2%.
Analyst Tony Sycamore ke mutabiq, oil prices is liye pressure mein hain kyunke “loadings expected se pehle hi resume ho gayi hain.”
Ab traders apna focus Western sanctions ke long-term impact par rakh rahe hain. U.S. Treasury ka kehna hai ke October mein Rosneft aur Lukoil par lagne wali sanctions ne Russia ki oil revenues ko pehle hi squeeze karna shuru kar diya hai, aur waqt ke sath exports further kam ho sakte hain.
ANZ ke mutabiq, “Moscow ka crude ab global benchmarks ke muqable mein noticeable discount par trade ho raha hai.”
White House ka kehna hai ke President Trump sanctions law sign karne ko tayyar hain bas shart ye hai ke implementation ki final authority unke paas rahe. Trump ne yeh bhi kaha ke Republicans ek bill draft kar rahe hain jis mein Russia ke sath business karne wale mulkon par bhi sanctions lag sakte hain — aur Iran bhi iss mein shamil ho sakta hai.
Goldman Sachs ka forecast hai ke oil prices 2026 tak downside phase mein rahengi kyunke supply wave market ko surplus mein rakhegi. Lekin bank ka yeh bhi kehna hai ke agar Russia ki output sharp decline karti hai toh Brent 2026/2027 mein $70 per barrel se upar bhi ja sakta hai.
