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FLY ON THE WALL, “Kyun Interest rate ko kum nahi karna chahiye”

Imagine karen ke aap 29 April ko honay wali MPC meeting mein deewar par bethi hui makhi hain aur Convenor meeting ko slide ke saath shuru karta hai kay

**Kyun Interest rate ko kum nahi karna chahiye**

The writer of this article is The CEO of TRESMARK, Mr. Faisal Mamsa.

– Fed ka rukh mukhtalif hai. America mein phir se barhti hui mahangai ne Interest rates ko December tak kum karne ki umeed ko door kar diya hai. Ye tabdeeli dolar ki raqam ki ravaayati karwayat ko dobara shuru kar degi, jis se emerging countries aur risk assets ki taraf se hifazati assests ki taraf dehan ki raftar mein izafa hoga. Humain mutabaqat se kaam lena chahiye.

– Jab ke Iran-Israel jang ka jhagra khatam ho gaya hai, lekin do fauji taqaton ki tajwez hai, jo mazhabi janooniyat ke malik hain aur seedha Allah se rabta rakhte hain. Humain mehfooz tareeqe se kaam lena chahiye.

– Aalmi siyasi aur rah-e-raast ke khatray bohot zyada hain, jo ke petroleum, commodities and food prices ko qaim rakhta hai. Zyada daamon se humare inhefaazat ko khatam kar de ga aur mahangai ko dobara sulagh dega.

– Ham agle mahine mein IMF ke saath dobara mulaqat kar rahe hain, humain maali zimmedari se be-parwaah nai nazar aana chahiye.

– Humne temporarory tor par maazi ki manfi se mustakbil ki taraf koi raftar rakhi hai aur haalaanki mahangai kam hoti ja rahi hai, hum apne maqsad ki mahangai ka nishaan door tak nahi pohanch paaye hain.
 
Next slide hai kyun intereste rate ko kum karna chahiye

– Khana aur bijli ke daamon mein qabil e zikar kami, sath hi aik mufeed buniad ka asar bhi hoga, jis se mahangai ka 3.6% se 17.0% tak kum honay ka imkaan hai.

– Humein 22% ke interest rate se aaghaaz se pehlay ki mahangai jo ke 38% tak pohanch gayi thi, aur ab yeh 21% (takhmeenati) tak aa chuki hai, aur humare paas 5% real interest rate hai, jo aane waali muddat mein mazeed barh jayega. Yeh sab Interest rate ko kam karne ke mazboot indicators hain.

– Interest rate kum karne se humare behtareen GDP nashriyat ke liye kuch izafa hoga.

– Mahangai agle mahinon mein materially tor par kum nahi ho sakti. Mahangai ka rukh mustaqil hai, is wqt Interest rate ko kum karna munasib nazar nahi aata. Khulaasatan, yeh Interest rate ko kam karne ka behtareen waqt ho sakta hai.

– PKRV peechle 3 dino mein 40 paisa kam hua hai aur peechle 30 dino mein lagbhag 60 paisa kam hua hai. Banking sector Interest rate ko kam karne ki kuch tawaqqa rakh raha hai. Agar hum ab Interest rate ko kam nahi karte hain, to hamare liye maali tor par qarz lena mushkil ho jayega aur humare paas June tak qarz ka bara nisab hai. Yeh ek bara maali zakhm hoga.  

Next Slide – Kisi member ka koi sawal hai?

*Sawal 1 – Interest rate ko kam karne ka kya asar hoga USDPKR par*
– Humare reserves abhi tak barqarar hai, halaanki humne aik $1bn ka bond ada kiya. Ye hamare paas mazboot mojooda hesiyat ka saboot hai jo ke humare paas tha, haalaanki humein kuch dolar arzi tor par udhaar lena pada.

– Hum aaj IMF ki manzoori ka intizaar kar rahe hain, haqeeqat mein, yeh meeting khatam hone se pehle ho jani chahiye. Yeh hamare liye $1bn ka increase karega. Humare Finance Minister ki umeed hai ke reserve June mein takreeban $10bn ke qareeb honge. Pichle saal is waqt tak, Sbp ke reserve takreeban $4bn ke qareeb the. 

– Liquidity Position kaarobari tor par achhi hai. Haalaanki kuch imports dobara jama hote ja rahe hain, hum umeed karte hain ke exporters dollar ko aage bechenge jo ke is halaat ko asaan kardega. Hum interbank market se abhi bhi dolar kharid rahe hain aur is amal ko reserve banane ke liye jaari rakhenge.

– REER 104 par pohanch gaya hai. Jitna bhi ooncha hai, ye tab tak pareshani ki baat nahi jab tak liquidity halat theek hai.

*Sawal 2 – America mein kya ho raha hai*
– GDP growth pehle darjey se kam thi lekin mahangai ne unexpected taur par izafa kiya, jo ke America ka sab se bara indicator hai.

– 10 saal ka bond muddat wala muddat 4.65% ke dar par tahfuz kar raha hai, aur is 10 saal ka bond 5% par pohanchne ka intezaar kar raha hai.

– USD Index 106 par hai, lekin risk appetite behtar hone par gir jayega. Gold pehlay se hi upper hai. 

Chalen vote karne ka process shuru karte hain

Agar hum mustaqbil mein sambhalte hue rahna chahte hain toh humein koi tabdeeli ka vote nahi dena chahiye

Agar hum istedad ke saath taraqqi ka mawaazna karna chahte hain, toh humein 100 bps interest rate mein kami ke liye vote karna chahiye

Agar hum taraqqi ke liye aggressive rehna chahte hain, toh humein 200 bps interest rate mein kami ke liye vote karna chahiye

Last time humare paas pehle se 2 afraad option B ke liye vote kar chuke hain. Sab ko kaise vote karna pasand hoga iss baar. Ah, acha hai dekh kar ke zyadatar log Option B ke liye vote kar rahe hain.

Note
: Upar di gayi kahani khayali hai aur haqeeqat mein kisi majlis se mil sakta hai.

Faisal Mamsa 

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