Ek brokerage house ki taza report ke mutabiq, 4QCY24E ke liye Pakistan ke banking sector ki earnings mein khas kami ka imkaan hai. Yeh kami core income ke girne aur zyada taxation ki wajah se ho sakti hai.
Core Income Ka Drop – Naye Policy Rates Ka Asar
🔻 Secondary market yields is quarter mein 5.1 percentage points gir chuki hain, jo NIMs (Net Interest Margins) ke YoY (Year-on-Year) drop ka sabab bani hai.
🔻 Policy Rate ko Jun-2024 se 1,000bps tak kam kiya gaya hai, jisse deposit aur borrowing rates bhi neeche aa rahi hain.
🔻 4.5% ka Policy Rate cut (Sep-Nov 2024) ka negative impact banks ki earnings par dekha jayega.
🔻 4QCY24 ke end aur 1QCY25 ke start mein bhi rate cuts ka asar earnings par par sakta hai.
Non-Interest Income Se Sector Ko Support Mil Sakta Hai
💰 Non-Interest Income (jo fees, dividend aur securities sales se aati hai) is quarter mein behtar reh sakti hai.
💰 FX Income stable rehne ka imkaan hai, lekin secondary income stream sequential decline dikhayegi.
📉 Operating expenses ka pace kam hone ki umeed hai, aur Cost-to-Income ratio 40% tak wapas aane ka imkaan hai (3QCY24: 43%).
💸 Tax savings ke liye banks apni ADR (Advance to Deposits Ratio) level barhane ki koshish kar rahe hain, lekin is wajah se loan portfolio ki quality par bhi asar par sakta hai.
4QCY24E Aur Mustaqbil Ki Earnings Par Zyada Tax Ka Pressure
📌 Banks ko additional 5% tax CY24E PBT (Profit Before Tax) par dena hoga, chahe wo ADR ka threshold achieve karein ya nahi.
📌 December 2024 mein hukoomat ne 15% ka additional tax abolish kar diya, jo un banks par lagta tha jo 50% ADR ka requirement pura nahi karte thay.
📌 Iske badle, banks par income tax rate 39% se barhakar 44% kar diya gaya hai, jo CY25 mein 43% aur CY26 mein 42% ho jayega.
📌 Higher taxation ki wajah se sector profitability aur pressure mein aa sakti hai.
Dividend Policies Stable Rahengi
💵 Brokerage house ki report ke mutabiq, banks ki dividend policies abhi tak stable lag rahi hain, lekin zyada dividend ka imkaan kam hai kyunki yields neeche aane ki wajah se future quarterly profits gir sakti hain.
📉 SBP ne policy rate aur 100bps cut karke 12% par le aaya hai, jo pehle 22% ka peak touch kar chuka tha.
Kya Banking Sector Ki Profitability Stable Rahegi?
Agar policy rates aur kam hote hain, to banks ki core income aur pressure mein aa sakti hai?
Non-interest income aur dividends ko leverage kiya ja sakta hai?
Article by News Team, Pakistan’s 1st Urdu Roman News
