September 2024 mein POL sales 20% barh gayi hain, jo ke 1.3 million tons tak pohanch gayi, yeh ek economic activity ke behtar hone ki wajah se hai, halan ke Iranian products ki smuggling aur power producers ki taraf se low FO offtake bhi dekhi gayi. Product-wise breakdown ke mutabiq, MS/HSD sales mein 22% aur 25% ki increment hua, jab ke FO sales 18% gir gayi. Company-wise analysis mein dekha jaye to PSO aur SHEL ke volumes 8% aur 17% barh gaye, jab ke APL ke sales 8% gir gaye. 1QFY25 ke doran total sales 3.7 million tons tak pahunch gayi, jo ke 3% decline ka shikar rahi.
White oil sales mein izafa: Domestic petroleum sales (non-energy ko chhor kar) September 2024 mein 20% barh gayi. Maheene ke doran volumes 5% barh gaye, kyunke petroleum prices mein kami aayi (MS aur HSD ka average price Rs254/257 per liter raha). Product-wise analysis ke mutabiq, MS/HSD sales 635K aur 495K tons tak pahunch gayi, jo ke 22% aur 25% ka increase hai (2% aur 8% maheene ke maamle mein). Is waqt, MS ki sales mein koi tabdeeli nahi hui, jab ke HSD sales 1% gir gayi 1QFY25 ke doran, kyunke Iranian fuel ka informal channels se aana barh gaya.
Black oil segment mein, FO sales September 2024 mein 69K tons tak gir gayi, jo ke 18% ki kami hai, yeh power producers se kam demand ki wajah se hai kyunke hydel power generation aur nuclear power generation ka hissa barh gaya hai, kyunke FO se electricity generate karne ka kharch Rs30.3/unit se zyada hai, jo ke sab sources mein sab se zyada hai (average fuel price Rs7.5/unit hai).
PSO: September 2024 mein PSO ki sales volume 548K tons tak pohanch gayi, jo ke 8% barh gayi. MS/HSD/FO sales volumes 256/219/14K tons tak pohonch gayi, jo ke 8/6/17% ka increment hai. Maheene ke maamle mein, volumes 4% barh gaye, jahan MS/HSD sales mein 2% aur 9% se up hui, jabke FO sales 19% gir gayi. 1QFY25 ke doran, sales 3% gir gayi. PSO ki overall market share 5.0 ppts ghat kar 43% tak reh gayi. MS/HSD ki market share bhi 5.6/8.1 ppts gir kar 40/44% tak aayi, jab ke FO share 5.9 ppts barh kar 20% tak pohonch gaya.
APL: APL ki sales volumes 8% gir gayi (MoM mein koi tabdeeli nahi) aur September 2024 mein petroleum sales 114K tons tak pohanch gayi. Product-wise analysis ke mutabiq, MS ki sales 7% barh gayi (7% MoM), jab ke HSD/FO sales 3/51% gir gayi (1/7% MoM). 1QFY25 ke doran sales 19% gir gayi. APL ki market share MS/HSD mein 1.2/2.7/11.7 ppts gir kar 8/9/18% tak aayi.
SHEL: September 2024 mein SHEL ki volumes 93K tons tak pohanch gayi, jo ke 17% barh gayi (1% MoM) kyun ke MS/HSD sales mein 17/11% ka increment hua (flat/1% MoM). 1QFY25 ke doran sales mein koi tabdeeli nahi hui. SHEL ki market share MS/HSD mein 0.5/0.8 ppts ghat kar 9/6% tak aayi.
HASCOL: Sales 42K tons tak pohonch gayi, jo ke 76% barh gayi (1% MoM) September 2024 mein, jo MS/HSD sales mein 47% aur 2.7x increment ki wajah se hai. 1QFY25 ke doran sales 19% barh gayi. HASCOL ki market share MS/HSD mein 0.7/1.6 ppts barh kar 4/3% tak aayi.
Expectation he ke petroleum products ki demand jo pichle 2 saal mein ghat gayi thi, wo FY25 mein kuch behtar ho sakti hai, kyun ke economic activity mein increase dekhne ko milega, halan ke domestic retail product prices bhi upar rehne ki umeed hai, jo ke zyada PKR-US$ parity aur international oil prices ki wajah se hai jo geopolitics ki wajah se stable hain.
Report ka mutabiq, Experts is sector par “Overweight” stance rakhte hain kyun ke sector ke cash flows mein behtari dekhne ko milegi (1) OMC margins mein tareekhi tabdeeli ki umeed aur (2) circular debt ki kami.
