JP Morgan ke analysts ne apni report mein likha hai ke IMF ke Extended Fund Arrangement (EFF) ke saath jo mazboot external stability aati hai, wo central bank ke liye policy easing resume karne mein aik bara rukawat hata deti hai.
Unka kehna hai ke periodic energy price adjustments aur rate-based taxation measures (higher sales aur excise taxes) disinflation trend ko ziyada farq nahi daalenge, kyun ke domestic demand kamzor hai.
JP Morgan ko umeed hai ke headline CPI FY24 mein 23.9% se kam hoke FY25 mein 9.5% ho jayega. Taylor Rule model ke mutabiq, easing ke liye substantial room hai. Hum umeed karte hain ke SBP FY25 mein kam az kam 500-600bp ke rate cuts karega, pehle half FY25 mein front-loaded easing ho sakti hai jab external conditions achi rahengi.
EFF program do saal se zyada uncertainty ke baad waqt pe aur materially Pakistan ki external debt repayment ability ke liye aik boost hai, aur foreign reserves 9 billion se barh ke 15 billion ho jayenge agle 12 maheenon mein.
Yeh normalization of official creditor inflows se supported hai, jab ke current account deficit thoda barhega aur Pakistan offshore bond market ke side pe rahayega. Key assumption yeh hai ke EFF program se major bilateral aur multilateral partners se financing unlock hogi, jo Pakistan ke external debt stock ka 80% hai.
Report ne kuch downside risks ka bhi zikar kiya hai: political risk opposition rallies ki surat mein, fiscal slippages due to overly optimistic revenue/GDP assumptions aur ad-hoc spending increases, aur public debt sustainability medium-term risk given elevated debt servicing burden aur private sector credit ke crowding out ke wajah se.
