Pakistan aur International Monetary Fund (IMF) ke darmiyan 37 maheenay ka Extended Fund Facility (EFF) ka Staff Level Agreement mukammal ho gaya hai.
Yeh program Special Drawing Rights (SDR) ke 5,320 million ya takreeban US$7 billion ke liye hai. Program ka maqsad doosri nasal ke reforms ke zariye mali mazbooti barhawa dena hai. Program ko IMF Executive Board ki manzoori aur doosray multi-lateral aur bilateral partners se financing ki tasdeeq darkaar hai. Humara yakeen hai ke budgetary measures ke paas hone aur National Fiscal Pact ke tehat consensus ki wajah se reform program par bharosa barqarar rahega. Yeh Pakistan equities ke liye ek re-rating cycle ko support karega jahan average earnings multiple IMF program ke doran +1 std dev se re-rate hota hai.
Regressive Taxation se door:
Pakistan ka program maqsad gradual fiscal consolidation ka amal jaari rakhna hai jisme exemptions ko khatam karna aur tax base ko broad karna shamil hai. Qareebi arajaat se tax revenues mein GDP ka 1.5% barhawa aur program ke doran 3% ka barhawa hona chahiye. Primary surplus ka target GDP ka 1% aur headline terms mein 2% rakha gaya hai. Progressive taxation ke liye measures qareebi hain jisme retail, export aur agriculture sectors ki net income ko tax net mein lana shamil hai.
National Fiscal Pact:
Fiscal zimmedari ko Federal aur Provincial Governments ke darmiyan munasib tor par taqseem karna 18th Constitutional Amendment ke tehat key sectors jaise ke regional public infrastructure, education, health aur social safety nets ke liye zaroori hai. Provincial Governments ne agri income tax regimes ko federal personal aur corporate tax regimes ke saath align karne ke liye qanuni tabdeeli laane ka wada kiya hai jo ke Jan’25 tak mukammal hogi. World Bank ka andaza hai ke yeh additional provincial revenues ka GDP ka ~1% (PKR 1.2trn) barhawa de sakta hai.
Monetary sector ke measures:
Program policies disinflation par focus karti rahengi taake real incomes ko protect kiya ja sake. SBP flexible exchange rate ko maintain karega aur FX operations ki transparency ko enhance karega taake shocks ke against buffer bana rahe aur foreign exchange reserves ka buildup jaari rahe. Financial stability measures financing ke access ko behtar banane aur undercapitalized banks ko address karne ke liye hongi.
Energy sector ki viability:
IMF SBA ke doran pichle 12 maheenay mein Pakistan ne energy sector pricing mein distortions ko kam kiya hai aur energy chain mein tariff adjustments ko tez kiya hai. Naye program ke tehat timely adjustments aur cost-reducing reforms ka implementation zaroori hai aur unnecessary capacity expansions ka khatma bhi zaroori hai. Energy sector mein cross subsidies ko targeted social programs ke zariye underprivileged households ke liye direct intervention se replace kiya jayega.
Private sector mein state distortions ka khatma:
Program ke tehat SOE management aur operations ko behtar banane ke measures liye jayenge jabke privatization merit order ko highest profitability ke basis par rakha jayega. Pakistan ne Special Economic Zones ke incentives ko phase out karne aur agriculture sector mein distortions ko major crop support prices aur subsidy programs ke zariye kam karne ka wada kiya hai. Government regulatory aur tax incentives aur guaranteed return investment schemes se bhi bachegi jo pehle fiscal stress ka sabab bani hain.
Capital Markets reaction
IMF SBA ke baad se KSE-100 Index 67% (USD terms mein 72%) gain kar chuka hai aur market multiples re-rating past trough valuations of 3.3x forward earnings par hai. Foreign institutional investors ka active allocation barh raha hai aur humara yakeen hai ke long term IMF program ke tehat re-rating process tez hoga jaise ke pehle IMF programs ke doran hota raha hai. Ongoing targeted reform process ke saath humara yakeen hai ke oil aur gas jaise sectors aur banks re-rate karenge jabke cements, steel aur autos jaise cyclicals earnings growth aur sectoral re-rating ke zariye outperform kar sakte hain.
