Karachi: KSE 100 Index ne ek aur mazboot mahina khatam kiya, choutha mahina musalsal, aur market rally ko mazid mazbooti di. Index May 2024 mein 7% barh gaya, jis se 5MCY24 returns aik zabardast 22% tak pohanch gaye (US$-based return: 23%). Is mahine ke dauran index ne aik record high 76,248 ko chhua, lekin thoda kam ho kar 75,983 par close hua.
Market ka optimism kai achi developments ki wajah se tha. May 2024 ke CPI ke liye achi khabar (today reported 11.8%) aur United Arab Emirates (UAE) ka Pakistan mein aik bara US$10bn investment commitment, in sab ne bullish market sentiment ko barhawa diya.
Is mahine Pakistan International Airlines Corp (PIAA) ke current structure mein final trading period tha, jahan ye suspend hui aur dobara trading shuru hui as a holding company – PIA Holding Company Limited (PIAHCLA), jo PIA ke ongoing privatization process mein aik ahem marhala tha.
IMF Talks
Is mahine aik IMF delegation Pakistan aayi taake loan packages par guftagu ho sake. Khabron ke mutabiq, Pakistan aik combined program ki talash mein hai jo Extended Fund Facility (EFF) structural reforms ke liye aur Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) climate challenges ke liye shamil hai. IMF mission ke Nathan Porter ne mutmain khabar di ke significant progress hui hai towards aik Staff-Level Agreement (SLA) comprehensive economic reform program par, jo IMF ke EFF se potential financial support ka raasta saaf karega.
External Account Reading Bhi Achhi Rahi
Ek aur encouraging macro datapoint external account side par is mahine aya. Apr-2024 ka current account balance US$491mn ka surplus record hua, jo 10MFY24 deficit balance ko US$202mn (-95% YoY) tak restricted rakha. Ye US$2.8bn remittances ke trade & services deficit of US$2bn se ziyada hone ki wajah se tha. Iske ilawa, central bank reserves 23-mahinay ki bulandi par US$9bn pohanch gaye, IMF ke 9-mahinay ke Standby Arrangement ka final tranche Pakistan ko mil gaya. Improved import cover of 2.1x, jo 27-mahinay ki bulandi thi, ne investor confidence ko mazid barhaya Pakistan ke external position par.
IMF-Centric Budget Ke Aasrat
KSE100 Index ka P/E ratio abhi 4x par hai, ye abhi bhi attractive pricing par hai. Historical averages se compare karen to, P/E ratio 33% discount par hai distressed average of 6x se aur 50% discount par hai normalized average of 8x se: Iske ilawa, Pakistani equities zabardast dividend yield 12% offer karti hain.
Aane wala federal budget, jo ab 10th June ko announce hoga, ki khabrein market performance ka trajectory set karengi near term mein, kyunke ye mulk ke potentially sabse bara IMF program ka raasta saaf karega.
Report by Mr. Muhammad Noman – MN, Editor in Chief, Urdu Roman News Pakistan
